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The Keystone State looks headed for another tight race as President Biden and former President Trump are in a dead heat in the latest Fox News survey of Pennsylvania voters, a state Trump won by less than a point in 2016 and Biden reclaimed by just over a point in 2020.
The survey of registered voters, released Thursday, finds the former and current presidents tied at 48% each, a slight improvement for Biden who was down by 2 percentage points in March.
Biden saw modest gains among nonwhite voters (+5), suburban voters (+5) and voters under age 35 (+9), while Trump’s coalition, such as conservatives, White evangelicals, White men without a degree, and rural voters, held relatively steady. What’s more, Trump kept the advantage he had among independents: He was ahead among them by 7 points in March and maintains an 8-point edge now.
Biden won union households by 5 points in 2020. Today, he holds the small subgroup by 2 points (49% Biden, 47% Trump). Non-union households split 48% each.
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In a potential five-way race that includes third-party candidates, Trump comes out on top by 2 points: Trump 44%, Biden 42%, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 8%, Jill Stein 2%, and Cornel West 1%. In this scenario, 8% of two-way Trump supporters break for Kennedy (none for Stein or West), while 10% of Biden supporters go for Kennedy (6%), Stein (3%), and West (1%).
Biden is in the Keystone State this week, focusing on the economy and advocating for higher taxes on the wealthy as he visits several cities, including his hometown of Scranton.
Over 4 in 10 voters feel they are falling behind financially (44%). Almost as many (41%) say they are holding steady, while just 14% say they are getting ahead. Trump leads among those who feel they are falling behind by 53 points, while Biden is ahead by 42 points among those saying getting ahead/holding steady.
The March Fox News Poll identified the economy as the top issue for Pennsylvanians, when voters surveyed felt Trump would better handle the issue. Trump’s advantage on the issue (+12 points) held steady in the April poll.
Trump also has a 16-point lead on another top issue: immigration and border security, while voters favor him on foreign policy by 4 points.
Biden is seen as better at handling abortion (+10), election integrity (+6), and health care (+6).
The two major candidates are nearly tied on energy policy (Biden +1), despite concerns among some Democrats that Biden’s opposition to fracking might be unpopular, especially after the administration paused new exports of U.S. natural gas earlier this year. A House Oversight Committee hearing on Thursday saw Republicans question the impact the pause would have on the U.S., especially internationally.
President Joe Biden speaks to the National Action Network Convention remotely from the South Court Auditorium of the White House, Friday, April 12, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Voters split over the Biden administration’s handling of the conflict in the Middle East: 24% think he’s too supportive of the Israelis vs. 23% say he's too supportive of the Palestinians. The largest number, 40%, says Biden’s approach is about right.
Democrats are more likely to think the White House is too supportive of the Israelis, while Republicans are more likely to think it is too supportive of the Palestinians.
Biden’s job approval rating is nearly identical to his personal favorability rating: 45% approve of the job he’s doing and 44% have a favorable opinion of him, while 55% disapprove of his job performance and have an unfavorable view of him.
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Trump is perceived slightly better than Biden on his favorable rating, but still underwater by 5 points (47% favorable vs. 52% unfavorable), while Kennedy is underwater by 6 points (40% favorable, 46% unfavorable, 15% can’t rate).
The candidates’ mental soundness has been a topic of debate and Pennsylvania voters are more likely to think Trump has the mental fitness to serve effectively as president (49%) than say the same of Biden (43%). At least half think they both don’t have the mental soundness to perform the duties of president (50% Trump does not, 55% Biden does not).
The Pennsylvania congressional race is tight as well: 47% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district while 46% support the GOP candidate. That’s a reversal from March when Republicans were up by 3 points.
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"The liabilities Biden has nationally are present in Pennsylvania, but they’re muted," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "His standing with core Democratic constituencies is a little stronger, and he does a little better on issues like abortion, health care, and election integrity. It’s the difference between being down a few points versus being tied."
See results from the other just released Fox News state surveys: Georgia here, Michigan here, and Wisconsin here.
Conducted April 11-16 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,141 Pennsylvania registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (211) and cellphones (628) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (302). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.
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