Brian Arbour: Coronavirus economy – Trump's reelection depends on these things

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President Trump vows economic recovery after catastrophic job losses

Trump predicts 'phenomenal' economic restart post COVID-19 despite record 20.5 million jobs lost in April; reaction and analysis on 'The Five.'

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What’s the most important factor in an election? In most years, it is the state of the economy.

This sentiment was best encapsulated by Ronald Reagan, who asked in his closing remarks at the lone 1980 presidential debate “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” The 1980 election was held in the middle of a recession and Reagan presumed that most voters would answer no, and vote against incumbent Jimmy Carter.

Political scientists like myself refer to this phenomenon as “retrospective evaluation.” This means voters look back at how things have gone over recent times and judge incumbent officeholders accordingly. The economy is the most important element of retrospective evaluation.

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When the economy is good (like in 1996 or in 1984), the incumbent president benefits and is likely to win reelection. When the economy is poor (like in 1980 or in 1992), the campaign of the incumbent president falls on deaf ears and the challenger wins.

At the moment, retrospective evaluation is working against the reelection hopes of Donald Trump. Unemployment is rising, GDP declining, the stimulus provided by the federal government is proving inadequate, and the COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage in the United States.

Should we just assume that Joe Biden is a shoo-in in November and that he should start working on his inauguration speech? Not so fast.

There are significant reasons to think that the economic downturn, as sudden and as sharp as it has been, will not have the same negative effects on this president’s political fortunes as previous economic problems had for other presidents.

The first reason is that the polarization of American politics in the most recent political generation has given both parties a larger base of voters that support their leaders. As the Republicans have grown homogeneously conservative and Democrats homogeneously liberal, voters can more easily understand the differences between the two parties. For voters, even those who are not intense partisans or defined ideologues, the choices between candidates are ideologically very stark. As a result, vote choices are easier to make.

In previous recessions, the main story was the recession itself. Not this year. The economic hardship, as deep as it is, is a secondary story to the public health crisis caused by the pandemic.

This polarization shows itself in the approval ratings of our last two presidents. Barack Obama recorded an average approval rating of 83 percent among Democrats in Gallup polls across his eight years in office, but only 13 percent among Republicans. Trump’s numbers are even more polarized. He has averaged approval ratings over 90 percent from Republicans and less than 10 percent among Democrats in Gallup polls across his presidency.

Trump enjoys near monolithic support among Republicans. That those approval ratings have remained steady for the previous three years of the administration – despite constant stories of scandal and inattention to the mechanics of government – demonstrate that Trump has a higher floor of support than presidents such as Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, who had to campaign for reelection during frightful economic times.

The second reason why Trump may not be politically damaged by the economic downturn as much as previous presidents is the unique nature of this downturn. The cause of the downturn is the need to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The economy is suffering not from the policy choices of the president nor from the inevitable ups and downs of the business cycle.

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In previous recessions, the main story was the recession itself. Not this year. The economic hardship, as deep as it is, is a secondary story to the public health crisis caused by the pandemic. The loss of jobs and failure of business, as big as they are, are a result of the virus. Voters may be more willing to accept explanations from this president about why the economic downturn is not his fault and what he is doing to mitigate the damage to the economy and the public health system.

And if the downturn in the economy is temporary, and the economy seems to be coming back in the fall, it is possible that the economy will be a positive issue for the president’s campaign.

With that being said, the president is playing a really lousy hand. The defeats of a wide variety of one-term presidents, ranging from George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter in my lifetime, to Herbert Hoover in the Great Depression and Martin Van Buren – whose presidency faced both the Panic of 1837 and the Crisis of 1839 –  have been caused primarily by a bad economy.

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In general, incumbent politicians are punished for bad things happening, even if the bad thing is not their fault.  From shark attacks to tornadoes, wildfires and lottery winners, and even the results of the local college football and basketball team, political scientists have found that bad news is bad for the incumbent and good news is good for his chances of reelection. It takes no big leap in logic to assume that voters unhappy with the pandemic will be less inclined to vote for the incumbent president.

So the economy puts President Trump in a disadvantageous position going into the general election campaign. But that conclusion is tempered by the fact that polarization and the pandemic create much more uncertainty about the effects of the economy on this year’s election. It is more likely to hurt the resident than help him; that’s what the history of American elections tells us. But voters may look back and not be happy, but they may not think it is the president’s fault.

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