Fox News Voter Analysis will tell the story of election night, Sandra Smith predicts
Fox News Sandra Smith previews Fox News Voter Analysis to measure the pulse of the electorate as pollster Alex Castellanos unpacks 2024 presidential election polling on The Story.
As the nation waits for election results, voters weigh in on the issues and whether former president Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will bring the kind of change they are looking for. Because it appears change is very much what they want.
Economic concerns and worries about the future are major considerations as voters make their choice in this year’s election.
Preliminary data from the Fox News Voter Analysis, a survey of more than 110,000 voters nationwide provide an early look at the mood of voters as they cast their ballots.
This year, more voters headed to the polls believing the country was on the wrong track (70%) than in 2020 (60%). And voters across the country are seeking something different: most want a change in how the country is run, with a quarter (26%) seeking complete and total upheaval.
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Voters’ frustrations with the Biden administration were readily apparent, as more than 5 in 10 disapprove of the job he is doing.
By contrast, voters had net-positive recollections of Donald Trump’s time in office, with over half approving of the job he did as president. Four years ago, 47% approved of the job Trump had done.
This desire for change is coupled with split views on the role of government. Slightly more than half say the government should be doing more to solve the country’s problems, a modest decline from 2020 (57%). Nearly as many (45%) think the government is doing too many things better left to the private sector.
Voters say the economy is far and away the top issue facing the country, followed distantly by immigration and abortion.
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Four in 10 voters say inflation was the single most important factor to their vote.
Voters have dismal evaluations of the economy: two-thirds rated it as fair (40%) or downright poor (23%). Four years ago, in the depths of a coronavirus-induced recession, only 14% said economic conditions were poor.
In a sign of inflation’s economic toll, roughly three times as many voters feel they were falling behind financially as feel they were getting ahead. Four years ago, roughly the same number said that they were getting ahead, however, the number who said they were falling behind was just 18% in 2020.
Being able to afford food (67%) was the main budgetary concern for more voters than health care (54%), housing (51%), and gas (48%).
On balance, voters had slightly more favorable views of Harris (48% favorable, 49% unfavorable) as a person than Trump (46% favorable, 52% unfavorable). The same is true at the vice-presidential level: views of Tim Walz (43% favorable, 41% unfavorable) were slightly better than opinions of JD Vance (42% favorable, 46% unfavorable). Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who ended his third-party presidential bid and endorsed Trump in August, was less popular than the two running mates (41% favorable, 43% unfavorable).
The spotlight is not kind to Biden, whose sharply negative favorability rating (40% favorable, 57% unfavorable) slipped significantly from four years ago (50% favorable, 48% unfavorable).
2024 FNVA Methodology Statement:
The Fox News Voter Analysis, conducted in partnership with the Associated Press, provides a comprehensive look at voting behavior, opinions, and preferences as America votes. It is based on surveys of the U.S. electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago with voting results from The Associated Press. For the 2024 General Election, the FNVA results are based on a probability sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files, samples of self-identified registered voters from a probability-based national panel, and samples of self-identified registered voters from opt-in online panels. The FNVA survey of the American electorate was conducted in all 50 states, October 28 to November 5, concluding at the end of voting on Election Day.
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